Major cabinet changes could then wait until
he has a mandate from the people
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Anne Dawson The Ottawa Citizen
Paul Martin is "seriously" considering a scenario that would see Parliament
shut down in November, a throne speech and a possible budget for February
and a quick election on or about April 1, CanWest News has learned.
Highly placed sources say Prime Minister Jean Chr�tien is aware this
scenario is at the top of the list in Mr. Martin's transition plans even
though no "real communication" has taken place between the two men.
Sources also say this plan would allow the prime minister to stick to his
original retirement date of February and prevent Mr. Martin from having to
make wholesale changes to cabinet until after an election.
"This is the most serious scenario being considered," said a source. "While
Paul has received a mandate from the Liberal party, he has not received one
from the people and that is very important to him."
Another source said Nov. 7 is the date that Parliament would likely be
prorogued or shut down, one week before the Liberal leadership convention in
Toronto, which is expected to confirm Mr. Martin's weekend win of the
Liberal leadership vote. The source said Mr. Chr�tien would return to the
Commons for a day of tributes in February before making his final farewell.
A key challenge for Mr. Martin under this scenario, according to sources, is
a cabinet shuffle before calling an election. While Mr. Martin knows he will
have to change the face of his front bench immediately upon assuming power,
he wants to have to make only a few changes initially with a promise of an
entirely new slate of ministers after the election.
"He'll do a minor shuffle initially and signal this is not the major
shuffle -- that it is still to come," said a source. "He knows cabinet
shuffles always put a few chinks in the armour because there will always be
many MPs who are disappointed when they don't make the cut and that can
cause division within caucus."
A second scenario would see Parliament recess in November without officially
proroguing. That would mean the new prime minister would not have to present
a speech from the throne and he could immediately call an election shortly
after Mr. Chr�tien retires in February for April 1 or thereabouts.
The April 1 date is important to Mr. Martin in that any election called
before that date would be under the old boundary rules that provide for 301
ridings. The new rules, which don't kick in until April, increase the number
of seats in the Commons by seven to 308, giving British Columbia and Alberta
two new seats each. Mr. Martin has made reducing western alienation a key
plank in his campaign platform and he would be harshly punished in the West
if he did not wait until that happened.
Martin spokesman Scott Reid dismissed the scenario last night: "Any
suggestion of that kind would be speculation in the extreme."
Publicly, Mr. Chr�tien refused yesterday to acknowledge Mr. Martin has
effectively won the Liberal leadership and said there is no rush to start
negotiating the transfer of power with his chief political rival.
He was curt and brisk during his regular weekly scrum with reporters and
made very clear he has no interest in discussing his departure.
When specifically asked when he intends to leave office, he snapped: "The
day I quit. Next (question)."
He did not rule out the possibility of shutting down Parliament early this
fall.
"It's a power that exists with the prime minister that I could use
tomorrow," he said.
When asked if he has begun negotiations to hand over power to Mr. Martin, he
said it is not a question of negotiation.
"There is no negotiation of transition. It's that when the time comes we
discuss in a civilized way."
He used the example of his 1993 election to argue that it's really not all
that difficult to prepare to become prime minister.
"I was elected the 25th of October. ... And I was the prime minister the
week after, or eight days. It's not that complicated. Everybody knows pretty
well when you've been in the cabinet for eight, nine or 10 years, you have
a pretty good notion of what is a government."
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