Randall Denley The Ottawa Citizen
In just one month, Dalton McGuinty has been transformed from a Liberal
leader Ontarians were skeptical of to the incoming premier with a 72-seat
majority. It was a great act, but what will he do to follow it?
Notwithstanding the dire Tory warnings of an unaffordable McGuinty spending
spree, and the Liberals' own choose-change sales pitch, the new McGuinty
government is likely to be cautious, dare we say conservative, in its
approach.
The one thing McGuinty can't afford to do is run a deficit. That would
destroy his carefully established image as a man who will be prudent with
our money. The first big decision he will have to make is whether to take
the deficit he's going to inherit and live with it for this year, blaming it
on the Tories. That will be a tempting course of action, but it would be
wrong. All it would do is postpone tough decisions about the imbalance
between spending and revenue, and it will feed suspicions that he's weak.
Throughout his campaign McGuinty has referred to "gradual, affordable"
investments in key areas such as education and health. That's the best he's
going to be able to do.
The promise McGuinty has highlighted most often is to reduce class size in
the junior grades. We can expect him to institute that for the next school
year, but only for junior kindergarten. Limiting the change to one grade
will minimize the impact on schools that don't have the space to accommodate
extra classes. A program that starts part way through the province's fiscal
year will also have a lesser financial impact on the budget. McGuinty has
simply given this promise too high a profile to do nothing. That would cost
him credibility. If he acts, but in a limited way, he can show he's a
promise-keeper, but cautious with your money, too.
McGuinty will be looking for promises that will cost the government little
or no money. He'll quickly raise the legal dropout age from 16 to 18. The
test of that policy will be whether he follows through with some kind of
program for the would-be dropouts. He'll also freeze post-secondary tuition
fees for two years, while expecting universities and colleges to eat some or
all of the loss of new revenue.
McGuinty will inevitably spend more money on health care. Our "free"
government health-care system eats money, no matter who is in charge. Expect
McGuinty to create an impression of accomplishment by moving on symbolic
promises to create a "commitment-to-medicare act," a provincial health
auditor and bans on smoking in all public places and junk food in schools.
Also free, but important, is the change in style McGuinty promised. He said
he would run a government that treats people better than the Tories did.
When a politician finally gets his hands on power, it's tempting to use it
at every opportunity. The Tories abused their power to their detriment.
McGuinty must do better.
The two tiny opposition parties will certainly be watching carefully for
McGuinty's first stumble, so they can show that hell has been unleashed on
Ontario, just as they predicted in the campaign. The media will be happy to
pick up the story-line. They've already liked McGuinty for a couple of weeks
now, so that really stretches the boundaries of the relationship.
Carefully read, McGuinty's platform invites us to judge what he has
accomplished by the end of four years. That's an eternity in politics,
though. Ontarians will have rated him either a success or a failure long
before that point is reached.
But let's not be too hasty to condemn McGuinty. Our new premier deserves a
bit of breathing space. That kinder, gentler Ontario McGuinty envisions
requires a public that doesn't devour its politicians like so many tasty
kittens.
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